A632.3.3.RB - Framing Complex Decisions

With the increase in information technology and data tracking businesses are utilizing complex tools that allow them to address and master environmental complexity (Hoch & Kunreuther, 2001, pg.120). Following the data, managers can track consumer behavior, internal costs, and supplier performance. In competing civilian organizations, it is often the company who applies complex tracking and monitoring tools who proves successful. The military is a little different in the fact that it may track complex data to forecast warfighting capabilities. There are multiple ways to compute mission success and strategic areas of importance. Unfortunately, this is information which is sensitive to national security and I have little understanding or knowledge on the topic. I can speak to simpler models used in tracking training fuel costs, and aircraft maintenance forecasts. Hoch and Kunreuther (2011, pg.120-127) list three tools for navigating in complex environments: Navigating data-rich environments, navigating systemic complexity, and navigating multi-stakeholder and environments.

As fuel costs rise, so does the cost of fuel consumed by military aircraft. There are simple data mining tools used in my organization that allow us to forecast monthly and annual consumption requirements. Occasionally, the military is forced to evaluate the cost and decrease flight training hours. While large military aircraft consume thousands of pounds of fuel every flight, the crews are reminded to be cognizant of fuel savings initiatives, such as; limiting ground running time and maximizing training efficiency as to reduce waste.

The second tool is navigating system complexity. I’ll compare this to how the Air Force tracks maintenance man hours and repair time associated with flying. While we typically aren’t constrained by costs, the Air Force does put limits on total flight hours provided annually. One way to limit actual flight time is through the use of aircraft simulators. The cost of the simulators is initially very expensive, however the long-term use lessons aircraft maintenance and repair costs.

The final tool for dealing with complex organizational decisions is navigating multi-stake holder and environment complexity. In my experience in the Air Force, support and maintenance functions are very similar throughout most bases. This function allows most airframes access to basic maintenance requirements at almost any base. For example, all large aircraft can accept ground power from support generators that are common to any base. There are exceptions, however the environmental complexity is kept to a minimum in order to support most every aircraft in the inventory.

Reference:

Hoch, S.J., & Kunreuther, H.C. (2001). Wharton on making decisions (1st ed.). Hoboken, NJ:      John Wiley & Sons Inc.